Obama Will Win in 2012

I thought it would be fun to throw out a ridiculous prediction. Obviously I don't know what the next two years will hold, but based on everything we know now, I'd place my bet on reelection for Barry.

If we continue the trajectory we're on now, the next two years will see significant economic recovery and a little bit of job recovery. This is good news for an incumbent presidential candidate, despite how little control he/she has over them. Recovering auto giant GM will benefit from this. China's economy is going to continue to grow, and as it does, so will its demand for vehicles. One day soon China will be the biggest auto market in the world, and right now GM is its top-selling car company. So I think in the next two years, the GM bailout is really going to start paying off, which will assuage much of the negative American sentiment against it and Obama by extension. Economic recovery will also soften hearts regarding the stimulus package. Opposition to the health care reform law will continue to decline.

What about the Tea Party? I have already explained my belief that the Tea Party is a creature of the recession. It is motivated by a hatred for government that stems from fear over our broken economy. It's also completely disorganized. It has no agreed-on leaders, no structure or organization, and no statement of beliefs. It is not a "party" at all. Lastly, it's overwhelmingly Republican. All the Tea Partier's claims that their movement is an independent, libertarian group of free-thinkers with no party affiliations are hogwash. Eighty percent of Tea Party supporters describe themselves as Republican. Combine all these facts together with a recovering economy and job market, and I think we're going to see the dissolution of the Tea Party. The hardcore, far-right libertarians will return to their gun caves and the rest will merge back with the GOP. My bet is that by 2012, the Tea Party will have lost its bite and the media will have grown tired of them.

The most significant influence the Tea Party will have is this November. It is obvious that the Democrats are going to lose big; I doubt Nancy Pelosi will keep her job. The Tea Party's influence will be to replace moderate and old-school Republicans with young, crazy, radical, far-right ones. Can't say I'm happy about this. In the end though, the Tea Party will do nothing but help the GOP get elected; people who claim otherwise underestimate the GOP establishment. Old, rich, cunning politicians who know how to harness populist sentiment against government are what the GOP is all about. They've done it before, they'll do it again, and it's already started. By December it will be common knowledge that the GOP is going to swallow the Tea Party whole.

Getting back to Obama's reelection, let's consider who will run against him. Sarah Palin will (has anyone ever more obviously prepared for an election bid?), but she'll lose in the primaries. I think Newt Gingrich will too, and I think he'll do well (he might even get my vote, we'll see), but I'm not confident he can beat Obama. Mitt Romney will probably be there, maybe Bobby Jindal, probably Tim Pawlenty (here's a good list for more). But when push comes to shove, I just don't think any of these folks will have what it takes. Two years with more control in Congress may not serve the new party of "no" as well as they hope.

In order for that to be true, Obama will have to make some changes. A split Congress will mean he will have to slow his breakneck legislative pace of his first two years and make some serious concessions to the Republicans while still appeasing the liberal establishment. This will be difficult. A DC friend of mine thinks there is a small chance the Democrats could nominate Hillary as their candidate in 2012. Obama's going to find himself between a rock and a hard place many times with Congress over the next two years. If he can manage to achieve the bipartisanship he spoke so eloquently of in his campaign, he will win big.

I know, big "if." But there are a lot of big ifs here. We could experience the dreaded double-dip recession, or a visionary, charismatic, conservative candidate could arise. But frivolous speculation is what blogs are for. I'm excited to see what develops.