Obama and the Race for Not Romney

A year ago I decided to have some fun by posting a big prediction: Obama would win in 2012. This was primarily based on three beliefs. First, the economy would continue to improve over the next two years and jobs would start to return; second, the GOP would not be able to come up with candidate capable of taking on the president; and third, the Tea Party — as a creature of the waning recession — would not have a lasting impact.

Today these beliefs look a little foolish. Though the economy is growing, it is doing so at a glacial pace — practically indiscernible from standing still — and the job market has not shown significant improvement. The small group of Tea Party Republicans in the House managed to hijack serious, sorely-needed bipartisan reform efforts by Obama and Speaker Boehner, sending the government on wild stunts that wasted our limited political resources with threats of government shutdowns. These fiascoes not only made our fiscal problems worse, they killed what little confidence concerned Americans have in their government, sending Obama and Congress's approval ratings through the floor.

One thing's for sure though, finding a viable Obama alternative in this climate has not been easy. I remember thinking the 2008 GOP primary field was cartoonish, but they don't begin to compare with this year's set of recession-fueled populists (who still look incomplete to me without Palin on the platform). There is one serious candidate in the race, Mitt Romney, whose poll numbers — which mean almost nothing at this point — continue to stick in the mid-20s. But the Right is so dissatisfied with his wishy-washy blandness that every few weeks they cycle through a new "front-runner" (read: tied with Romney). First it was Bachman, who believes the 9-9-9 plan is of the devil; then it was Perry, who would ax whole government agencies, he just can't remember which ones; and now it's Cain, who doesn't believe Muslims belong on the president's cabinet and wishes they would "leave us alone." My hunch is it's going to be Gingrich next.

I wouldn't need to revise my prediction if anyone but Romney were going to win the primary, but I'm convinced he is. Which is bad news for Obama. Without a screwball opponent, he is going to have to hope hard for some job recovery during the next year, and with Europe on the brink of throwing a giant wrench into the global gears, we're all losing confidence he will get it. His retreat from uniting the parties and attempt to rally his base and go on the attack has fallen on its face with the failure of his jobs plan (a common sense set of measures which should have been 2009's stimulus package, were it not disingenuously paid for). Obama is an incredible orator, but Romney is a better debater, and answering Romney's tough questions about what happened during the last two years is going to be difficult for Obama next Fall.

The unfortunate irony for Obama is he has excelled at the very things the presidency is well-equipped to do (foreign policy), but which voters care little about; and failed at things the presidency is ill-equipped to do (improve the economy), but which voters care very much about. I shudder to think what our military commitments would be had a McCain administration taken us through the Arab Spring, Libya, and the withdrawal from Iraq. Who knows how many fronts we would still be fighting on, and how many rebuilding efforts we would be committed to. When you throw in the discovery of Osama Bin Laden,  the nuanced, cool-headed, hands-off Obama Doctrine has proved not-too-shabby for a one-term senator.

But of course the average voter couldn't care less. Seeing the Left as weak in the face of adversity, the center has moved right.

There is still time. The Right could decide it just can't bear Mitt and send Perry to the slaughter. Jobs could come back. But these possibilities seem remote in comparison with the likelihood of a Romney nomination and high unemployment a year from Tuesday ... which would be tough for anyone.

Image: Paul Chenoweth